This produces a heat bonus of perhaps 30 percent beyond the heat provided by direct sunlight to these seas, accounting for the mild winters downwind, in northern Europe. But we may not have centuries for acquiring wisdom, and it would be wise to compress our learning into the years immediately ahead. In discussing the ice ages there is a tendency to think of warm as good—and therefore of warming as better. What is 3 sheets to the wind. A quick fix, such as bombing an ice dam, might then be possible.
Judging from the duration of the last warm period, we are probably near the end of the current one. In the Greenland Sea over the 1980s salt sinking declined by 80 percent. The job is done by warm water flowing north from the tropics, as the eastbound Gulf Stream merges into the North Atlantic Current. Whole sections of a glacier, lifted up by the tides, may snap off at the "hinge" and become icebergs. The cold, dry winds blowing eastward off Canada evaporate the surface waters of the North Atlantic Current, and leave behind all their salt. Stabilizing our flip-flopping climate is not a simple matter. The sheet in 3 sheets to the wind crosswords eclipsecrossword. They even show the flips. What paleoclimate and oceanography researchers know of the mechanisms underlying such a climate flip suggests that global warming could start one in several different ways. Greenland's east coast has a profusion of fjords between 70°N and 80°N, including one that is the world's biggest. It keeps northern Europe about nine to eighteen degrees warmer in the winter than comparable latitudes elsewhere—except when it fails. It was initially hoped that the abrupt warmings and coolings were just an oddity of Greenland's weather—but they have now been detected on a worldwide scale, and at about the same time. We are in a warm period now.
Any meltwater coming in behind the dam stayed there. What could possibly halt the salt-conveyor belt that brings tropical heat so much farther north and limits the formation of ice sheets? We can design for that in computer models of climate, just as architects design earthquake-resistant skyscrapers. A lake formed, rising higher and higher—up to the height of an eight-story building. Unlike most ocean currents, the North Atlantic Current has a return loop that runs deep beneath the ocean surface. If Europe had weather like Canada's, it could feed only one out of twenty-three present-day Europeans. Term 3 sheets to the wind. Any abrupt switch in climate would also disrupt food-supply routes. Then, about 11, 400 years ago, things suddenly warmed up again, and the earliest agricultural villages were established in the Middle East.
A stabilized climate must have a wide "comfort zone, " and be able to survive the El Niños of the short term. This El Niño-like shift in the atmospheric-circulation pattern over the North Atlantic, from the Azores to Greenland, often lasts a decade. The fact that excess salt is flushed from surface waters has global implications, some of them recognized two centuries ago. Things had been warming up, and half the ice sheets covering Europe and Canada had already melted.
Counting those tree-ring-like layers in the ice cores shows that cooling came on as quickly as droughts. Thermostats tend to activate heating or cooling mechanisms abruptly—also an example of a system that pushes back. Perhaps computer simulations will tell us that the only robust solutions are those that re-create the ocean currents of three million years ago, before the Isthmus of Panama closed off the express route for excess-salt disposal. It, too, has a salty waterfall, which pours the hypersaline bottom waters of the Nordic Seas (the Greenland Sea and the Norwegian Sea) south into the lower levels of the North Atlantic Ocean. This salty waterfall is more like thirty Amazon Rivers combined. We might undertake to regulate the Mediterranean's salty outflow, which is also thought to disrupt the North Atlantic Current. This tends to stagger the imagination, immediately conjuring up visions of terraforming on a science-fiction scale—and so we shake our heads and say, "Better to fight global warming by consuming less, " and so forth. The system allows for large urban populations in the best of times, but not in the case of widespread disruptions. In 1970 it arrived in the Labrador Sea, where it prevented the usual salt sinking. Subarctic ocean currents were reaching the southern California coastline, and Santa Barbara must have been as cold as Juneau is now. This was posited in 1797 by the Anglo-American physicist Sir Benjamin Thompson (later known, after he moved to Bavaria, as Count Rumford of the Holy Roman Empire), who also posited that, if merely to compensate, there would have to be a warmer northbound current as well. Large-scale flushing at both those sites is certainly a highly variable process, and perhaps a somewhat fragile one as well. The back and forth of the ice started 2. From there it was carried northward by the warm Norwegian Current, whereupon some of it swung west again to arrive off Greenland's east coast—where it had started its inch-per-second journey.
Whereas the familiar consequences of global warming will force expensive but gradual adjustments, the abrupt cooling promoted by man-made warming looks like a particularly efficient means of committing mass suicide. Natural disasters such as hurricanes and earthquakes are less troubling than abrupt coolings for two reasons: they're short (the recovery period starts the next day) and they're local or regional (unaffected citizens can help the overwhelmed). When the warm currents penetrate farther than usual into the northern seas, they help to melt the sea ice that is reflecting a lot of sunlight back into space, and so the earth becomes warmer. Water is densest at about 39°F (a typical refrigerator setting—anything that you take out of the refrigerator, whether you place it on the kitchen counter or move it to the freezer, is going to expand a little). So could ice carried south out of the Arctic Ocean. The high state of climate seems to involve ocean currents that deliver an extraordinary amount of heat to the vicinity of Iceland and Norway. Now only Greenland's ice remains, but the abrupt cooling in the last warm period shows that a flip can occur in situations much like the present one.
It would be especially nice to see another dozen major groups of scientists doing climate simulations, discovering the intervention mistakes as quickly as possible and learning from them. North-south ocean currents help to redistribute equatorial heat into the temperate zones, supplementing the heat transfer by winds. Berlin is up at about 52°, Copenhagen and Moscow at about 56°. Keeping the present climate from falling back into the low state will in any case be a lot easier than trying to reverse such a change after it has occurred. Alas, further warming might well kick us out of the "high state. " In an abrupt cooling the problem would get worse for decades, and much of the earth would be affected.
Timing could be everything, given the delayed effects from inch-per-second circulation patterns, but that, too, potentially has a low-tech solution: build dams across the major fjord systems and hold back the meltwater at critical times. Canada's agriculture supports about 28 million people. Like bus routes or conveyor belts, ocean currents must have a return loop. Volcanos spew sulfates, as do our own smokestacks, and these reflect some sunlight back into space, particularly over the North Atlantic and Europe. The populous parts of the United States and Canada are mostly between the latitudes of 30° and 45°, whereas the populous parts of Europe are ten to fifteen degrees farther north. But sometimes a glacial surge will act like an avalanche that blocks a road, as happened when Alaska's Hubbard glacier surged into the Russell fjord in May of 1986. Oceanographers are busy studying present-day failures of annual flushing, which give some perspective on the catastrophic failures of the past. Even the tropics cool down by about nine degrees during an abrupt cooling, and it is hard to imagine what in the past could have disturbed the whole earth's climate on this scale. When the ice cores demonstrated the abrupt onset of the Younger Dryas, researchers wanted to know how widespread this event was. The return to ice-age temperatures lasted 1, 300 years. The discovery of abrupt climate changes has been spread out over the past fifteen years, and is well known to readers of major scientific journals such as Scienceand abruptness data are convincing. These northern ice sheets were as high as Greenland's mountains, obstacles sufficient to force the jet stream to make a detour.
Near a threshold one can sometimes observe abortive responses, rather like the act of stepping back onto a curb several times before finally running across a busy street. We need heat in the right places, such as the Greenland Sea, and not in others right next door, such as Greenland itself. A slightly exaggerated version of our present know-something-do-nothing state of affairs is know-nothing-do-nothing: a reduction in science as usual, further limiting our chances of discovering a way out. Nothing like this happens in the Pacific Ocean, but the Pacific is nonetheless affected, because the sink in the Nordic Seas is part of a vast worldwide salt-conveyor belt.
These blobs, pushed down by annual repetitions of these late-winter events, flow south, down near the bottom of the Atlantic. Ours is now a brain able to anticipate outcomes well enough to practice ethical behavior, able to head off disasters in the making by extrapolating trends. It's happening right now:a North Atlantic Oscillation started in 1996. They might not be the end of Homo sapiens—written knowledge and elementary education might well endure—but the world after such a population crash would certainly be full of despotic governments that hated their neighbors because of recent atrocities. Although I don't consider this scenario to be the most likely one, it is possible that solutions could turn out to be cheap and easy, and that another abrupt cooling isn't inevitable. At the same time that the Labrador Sea gets a lessening of the strong winds that aid salt sinking, Europe gets particularly cold winters.
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