The enemy will gradually raise their shield color, from white, to yellow, to red. Selphie, Ramza, Raines, Quistis. Happens at start of fight. King Behemoth abilities to watch out for: Meteor++ (Orb attack): recovers from break, removes debuffs, KOs enemies. Our party iBRV Down, DEF Down & mBRV Down by 10/20/30/50/100%. Some quick tips and mechanic reminders on the bosses for the Lufenia below!
LOWER MINI MUMMY HP TO BELOW 49%! Valheim Genshin Impact Minecraft Pokimane Halo Infinite Call of Duty: Warzone Path of Exile Hollow Knight: Silksong Escape from Tarkov Watch Dogs: Legion. Don't bring Brothers summon unless you have heavy BRV gains as you won't deal BRV DMG in it. This fight was brought to you by Meteorologist Dad Jokes! Sice and Snow can solo this fight so go nuts! 3 enemy fight means you will probably be doing lots of damage, but be prepared for the threshold mechanics. The Orb gets removed at 79% and reappears at 49% until the end. Inflicts HP DMG down to the party. Rushing multiple thresholds will have multiple orb attacks happen in succession if you can take the damage and want to reduce the amount of cleanses/dispels for call only strats. Tifa vs behemoth instant loss recipes. Summons Sweeper, Enters evasive mode. Below 29%, the boss will gain a high BRV dmg reduction ( Setzer helps with this, as well as any BT+ or strong BT effects, like Yuna). Take as much HP DMG as you want just don't have main party members stay dead!
So come on and Slam! Hurray for Tifa's Purple Pain, Angelic Earrings and Cloud just tanking it thanks to Wall! High turn rate on BREAK/broken. Edgar, Hope + Fran/Irvine + Auron. Failing to do so at thresholds listed above will have the mini mummies perform essentially a ST orb attack (dispel target and autokill bypassing any last stand/unkillable effect). 8, 25 max, non lethal). 75T fight to get through 29MHP (Vivi & Rem have 9M, WoL has 11M). 35 CP leila, Galuf, Kain, Cater, Edge, Eight. Lots of BRV gains and HP attacks coming your way so go delete happy with Zidane BT or let them take turns and heal up/reset mitigation before the next big hit. He may drain your HP and regen, but it won't matter if you can keep beating his ass. Removes Debuffs before attack. Lowers Ifrit's debuffs 4T. Tifa vs behemoth instant loss diet. I killed him with that. I gotta say this fight was incredible.
Really can't say that enough. Garnet BT effect expiration is a party debuff cleanse c;). Freya can do this while in the air, but other healers with healing skills can also do this. Maria, Porom and Auron are also great choices to keep party safe. This fight was brought to you by Mecahnical Bulls! Tifa vs behemoth instant loss chicken. Grants BRV Regen 2T to self. Running/Parrying from him is key once he regains his stance but if you keep the pressure on, you can stagger him in that form and take back all the HP he regen'd from you. You can BT phase to push Bahamut from above 80% to below 49% to force only 1 warp. L&R LD eats them up for breakfast. Linked attackers and field attackers such as Cissnei, Freya, Kain, CoD, etc will mess with the orb so bring them at your own risk. It looks like a yellow aura. The orb is +5 when the HP dmg dealt is increased by a debuff ( Cinque 's debuff, Gabranth call is AMAZING, even just the base) and +1 when the boss takes earth damage.
High-Pressure Water Cannon: water BRV attack. Orb is +2T for dealing BRV DMG or +2 for dealing Ranged BRV DMG and dealing 500K HP DMG. Besides the threshold HP attacks, Kefkas REALLY like using HP attacks so consider heals and mitigation as all the outgoing HP damage can be mitigated including Light of Judgement's HP gravity! As mentioned above, Freya and Kain can't satisfy the follow up condition, but with Crit buffs/auras they can still increase the orb. Crit buffs/auras are highly recommended to at least keep the orb going down 1 tick at a time instead of 2. Boss abilities to watch out for: Gespenstlicht+: Recover from BREAK. Orb Timelineno change per ally action, -2 on book's turns. Removes debuffs, AoE BRV + Split HP attack. If the active member and Freya/Kain crit they can maintain the orb neutral. 65T fight to get through 28M HP (2x 14M). See link above for more options! Either heavily mitigate if giving them turns (red aura ALL attack double taps so goes through Last Stand/Basch) or Don't give them turns. Inflicts ATK, DEF, SPD, iBRV, mBRV Down.
Selphie in party can tick orb before swapping out for friend and letting your BT unit destroy their HP. Heat: BRV Poison (100% iBRV), HP Poison (50% ATK). Alphinaud (LD), Exdeath, Yda (S2). Yeetus Deletus self. Tremor debuff is a BRV and HP poison equals to 10% of boss iBRV. Snow IW vs Tyrant and Centaurion Blade. The orb probably isn't what's going to kill you this fight. With so many BT+ units at this point, BT+, summon and BT phase with good single target damage can eat this fight up. 2x Heretic Llama Mascara (DE: Transcendence 1, Reckoning) - @79%, 49% and 29% they will gain a HP poison aura to the party and HP potent HP regen onto themselves until launched.
Centaurion Blade nukes itself. Bring lots of HP DMG Up and HP DMG taken up debuffs if you want to really bully them with few turns of their own. Weak to Holy and Dark. Happens at Quest Start & below 50% of Xande's mHP! Spume: BRV gain + HP attack. 55T fight to get through at least 25M HP (1x 22M, 1x 3M). Immune to launching. Rydia, Freya and Locke were different forms to stay alive as well, but require some timing/upkeep. This fight welcomes you to the Space Jam! After 10 turns without the Orb, it will pop back up for 10T. Xande LDCA & Shantotto BT+ enchant party with Dark. 100% - 79% is pretty easy and orb can be rushed to make sure debuffs stay active until 49% orb comes up. Orb (6 start, 8 max) at all times: +2 after orb holder has 4+ debuffs.
But because of that stickiness of services inflation ex shelter, I think it's going to be difficult to get all the way back to the Fed's 2% target on a sustainable basis. In looking at all of the increase of job openings that you've seen today, prior to the pandemic, you've seen an increase of over three million job openings. Clearbridge legg mason anatomy of a recession. 1 And only a couple of percentage points of mortgages went to subprime borrowers. Bond prices generally move in the opposite direction of interest rates.
So, the best three quarters during the presidential cycle is Q4 of year two, followed by Q1 and Q2 of year three. They're driving us in a direction where a recession is highly probable. We've had hawkish Powell, really, since that Jackson Hole conference where Powell ripped up his speech and pushed back on the idea of loosening financial conditions. Fixed-income securities involve interest rate, credit, inflation and reinvestment risks; and possible loss of principal. Webinar: Anatomy of a Recession – What To Look For And Where We're Headed. It kind of puts a thought in my head here relative to the great financial crisis and the impact that the housing market had in that scenario. Companies may not resort to a full-scale layoff cycle considering that margins peaked only three quarters ago, and on average, since 1960, from peak margin to recession, that timeline has normally been around three years. Happy New Year and thank you for joining us today. The anatomy of a recession. Mary Ellen Stanek is Co-Chief Investment Officer of Baird Advisors and President of the Baird Funds. Historically, this has been a sign of retail capitulation and signals a near-term buying opportunity. And there's a very strong relationship with this measure and consumption. Prior to joining ClearBridge, Jeffrey was a Portfolio Specialist at Lord Abbett & Co., LLC. Host: Jeff, I can't believe it's February already. It's still green at the moment.
And when evaluating those four periods, there's a commonality that becomes clear: that a dovish Fed pivot was a key catalyst in continuing to keep that expansion moving forward. Plus, how inflation and policy decisions fit into the equation. It's their number one problem. And if you've got any perspective on the current view—strength of the overall signal maybe? So the Fed recognizes this.
Permits are down nearly 30% from their peak one year ago. The yield curve is a really important indicator, and it's had no false positives over the last eight recessions. You know, one of the reasons why we're optimistic on a counter-trend rally coming into October was that markets were washed out. But in taking a step back, this feels like a counter-trend rally, a dead-cat bounce, a bear-market rally. It's called aggregate weekly payrolls. Jeff Schulze: Well, again, services inflation, ex-rents, ex-shelter, it has a very strong correlation with the labour market. MODERN EXPANSIONS HAVE HAD STAYING POWER. The ClearBridge Recession Risk Dashboard is a group of 12 indicators that examine the health of the U. S. Mallowstreet University Digital Roundtable: Anatomy of a Recession - What to Look for and Where we are Headed – mallowstreet – A Better Retirement for Everyone. economy and the likelihood of a downturn.
Two weeks ago, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) officially declared that a trough in economic activity had occurred in April 2020, making the two-month COVID-19 recession the shortest on record dating back to the mid-1800s. Over the past five years, over 80% of mortgages went to super prime borrowers. And the fact that on a year-over-year basis, it's at -6% in that survey. Jeff Schulze: There is. But one thing that may keep the recessionary layoff cycle at bay for a little bit is that labor has been the scarcest commodity of this recovery. It's probably going to take some time. And that really kicked off the high inflationary 1970s and structurally higher inflation. West Hartford | Local Event. And the story of 2022 has really been a story about multiple compression with PEs [price-earnings ratios] moving from 21 times forward earnings down to 15. Stream ClearBridge 2023 Economic Outlook: Handicapping the Most Anticipated Recession Ever by ClearBridge Investments | Listen online for free on. But again, this is a series with the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) going back to the early 1970s that had a prior peak of 33%.
And what I mean by that is that a large portion of the job creation that happened in January was from hospitality and leisure, about 25% of it. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Anatomy of a Recession: Focusing on the Fed. Have oil prices peaked, along with gasoline? But similarly, when you look at every Fed tightening cycle since 1955, there's been 13 of them. Plus, what's being done to ramp up oil production globally. Anatomy of a Recession—Focusing on the Fed | Traders' Insight. And this is really important because the NAHB actually leads the unemployment rate by 12 months, which would suggest a lot more people laid off as we move into 2023. In this WEALTHTRACK podcast we are joined by ClearBridge's Investment Strategist Jeff Schulze, the architect of the firm's widely followed Anatomy of a Recession (AOR) program, which publishes a monthly Recession Risk Dashboard, a 12-indicator scorecard of the economy, each color-coded according to their status, green for expansion, yellow for caution and red for recession. If you look at this earnings season, you've seen clear margin deterioration. Now, what's unique about this is that usually the Fed anticipates job losses and they usually cut as the job market is transitioning from job creation to job loss.
It just continues to be a story about labor market as the last domino to fall. Investing in Innovation: Impacts of Market Volatility and Shocks. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice. Of those three million additional job openings, small businesses, businesses with less than 250 employees, make up over 90% of those increases in job openings. But before we do, it seems like US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell's speech last week provided some clarity on the next steps for the Fed. The doom and gloom headlines tend to give us false signals on where the economy/stock market is heading. Jeff Schulze: Unfortunately, when the dashboard turns red, usually an object in motion stays in motion. So, goods deflation is happening, and that's helping to normalise the inflation picture.
6% of downside over the near-term, looking out on a six-month time horizon, even with that downward pressure, the markets are up on average 4. In fact, earnings expectations for the next 12 months earnings have only come down 2% from their peak. Anatomy of a Recession: Deteriorating Economic Conditions with Continuing Bear Market. And a lot of people forget that we hit bear market territory almost seven months ago. In order for the Fed to really break the labour market, they need to break small business labour demand.
Jeff Schulze: I do think there is a time frame that the Fed is specifically honing in on, and I think it's the soft-landing scenario that you saw in 1966. Making Sense of the Recent Market Selloffs. 5 correlation, a very good relationship. And yes, we still believe 75% probability of a recession. So in each of those instances, the Fed cut rates in order to prolong those expansions. Ed Perks, chief investment officer of Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions, breaks down the macro environment and shares the fixed income sectors he believes are now attractive, in this conversation with our Josh Greco.