The first quarterly report issued by Taylor Morrison, was for the period ending March 31st, 2013. Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. The IPO did not occur until April 2013, and thus many might find it difficult to understand the typical valuation metric of price-to-book used to value homebuilders.
From a price-to-book value standpoint, Taylor Morrison is valued towards the middle or high-end of the homebuilding peers that present good comparable companies: There are two reasons for this, and both are acceptable. Taylor Morrison was purchased by a consortium of private investors in 2011, and just slightly more than two years later, these investors have cashed in their chips with the IPO of Taylor Morrison. Competitive Advantages. What year did tmhc open their iso 9001. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha).
We believe a substantial portion of our current land holdings was purchased at attractive prices at or near the low point of the market. The second reason is that Taylor Morrison is already delivering significant profits to the bottom line, which serves to increase book value. This is incorrect as it does not incorporate the impact of the IPO and the additional shares issued. If the housing industry is able to maintain its momentum, Taylor Morrison should trade for at least 15x its 2014 earnings as the company would still be expected to have further growth ahead of it. Applying a 15x PE multiple to the estimated 2014 EPS, still significantly below that of its peers even when you account for their 2014 earnings estimates, the company should see its stock trade for just over $31 a share. What year did tmhc open their ipod touch. 07 per share in 2014. This is only relevant in so much that Taylor Morrison has not run away from its IPO price creating a valuation imbalance that is seen with many companies immediately after they hit the public markets. An example of this is shown in the image below taken from Yahoo! The result of this fortuitous land acquisition strategy is already apparent in the company's operating results. This is what happens when a company is backed by deep pocketed private investors willing to aggressively take on risk outside of the public eye. This article was written by. This equate to about 25% upside in the near term.
More than half of those lots were purchased in a period of time when land was valued significantly less than it is today, and while other builders were for the most part sitting on the sidelines. Where the valuation story becomes most intriguing is when you look at the forward earnings estimates for the same builders shown above, and the PE multiple these builders currently trade at. This is seen by the performance of its stock price since the time the company came to market: The stock closed up about 6% the day of its IPO, ending at ~$23 a share. Having a higher ASP in general allows the company to earn more in absolute gross margin dollars for every home closed, driving better operating leverage. Recall that earlier it was noted that Taylor Morrison controlled roughly 40, 000 lots as of March 31, 2013. Investment Opportunity. This level of gross margin% puts Taylor Morrison towards the top of the pack of all the homebuilders for this metric. What year did tmhc open their ipo price. This is a more lucrative part of the new home market, as these buyers are generally less impacted by any number of factors that are important in the home buying process, and also transact at a higher average sales price "ASP. " Currently the stock is trading about 7% higher than the price it closed at on the day of its IPO, which equates to a market capitalization of ~$3B. Looking out one year further, Taylor Morrison is expected to earn $2.
I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. Thanks to the deep pockets of its private investors, Taylor Morrison gobbled up land at a pace seemingly faster than any other builder during this time period. At the end of Q1 2013, the company controlled over 40, 000 lots. Move-up buyers are essentially what the name implies. The sale was made necessary by the heavy debt load carried by Taylor Wimpey at the time. For Q1 2013, Taylor Morrison saw adjusted gross margins of over 23% (adjusted to exclude amortized interest). At the height of the housing downturn, Taylor Wimpey was forced to unload its North American assets, which represents the present-day Taylor Morrison. The biggest risk to the investment thesis for Taylor Morrison, is that they have exposure to the Canadian housing market, which is underperforming the US market currently. The company CEO noted that one of the strategic changes the company made during the time it was a private company, was to focus heavily on the move-up buyers instead of first time home buyers. Given that it is known that company purchased a majority of its land while the market was still in a downturn, this land is worth more today than it is carried on the balance sheet for GAAP purposes. The actual market cap of Taylor Morrison should be based off of the total shares outstanding, which are ~122M as seen in the prospectus that accompanied the IPO: It is impossible to value the company correctly without understanding its total shares outstanding.
The PE multiple the company trades for is significantly below that of its peers. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. With just over 1, 000 closings in Q1 (annualized at 4, 000 a year) the company controls about eight years worth of land. Taylor Morrison notes a very critical fact in the SEC filing that accompanied its IPO. 0 billion on new land purchases, acquiring 25, 532 lots, of which 21, 334 currently remain in our lot supply. Nonetheless, it's important for investors to understand that the company is not a pure play on the US market the way most other publicly traded homebuilders are. Finance: Notice that the market cap for the company currently shows $820M.
The company is flush with cash from its IPO and from tapping the debt market, has one of the best land positions in the industry in terms of years of lot supply, and does not carry the legacy baggage that many of the other homebuilders carry. The importance of this was covered in detail in another article with regards to M. D. C. Holdings (MDC), that also transacts at a higher "ASP" than the homebuilding peer group. This is a great example of why investors always should do their own due diligence and not blindly trust the financial data found even at reputable sites such as Yahoo. The company will generate significantly more net income over the balance of the year, will increase the book value of the company and drive down the price-to-book ratio assuming the stock stays at the same price. The risk is not significant as only about 10% of the company's closings for Q1 2013 were generated from its Canadian operations. Taylor Morrison is a unique investment in the homebuilding space as it was able to operate outside of the public eye for two of the most important years of the housing downturn. 2011 and 2012 represented the years when housing bottomed and bounced, and also the period of time where those builders buying land will look very smart in the years to come if the housing market continues its recovery.
This is partially due to many probably not fully understanding how to value the company yet. Taylor Morrison saw an ASP of ~$362K for all homes closed in Q1 2013. These buyers have previously purchased a home, often their first, and now are looking to move up to a larger house due to an increase in family size or wealth. Previously, Taylor Morrison was owned by a publicly traded British homebuilder, Taylor Wimpey. Taylor Morrison Homes (NYSE:TMHC) returned to the public markets in April 2013 with a successful IPO. The table below shows the current year EPS expectations for each builder highlighted above, its current stock price, and the current PE multiple: The above table represents the greatest reason that investors should own Taylor Morrison today. Another significant competitive advantage for Taylor Morrison is its focus on move-up buyers. Investors have a chance right now to buy into Taylor Morrison while it still flies under the radar as a relatively new publicly traded company.
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