For nearly 100 years, one family traded influence and held power in the South Carolina lowcountry until a fatal boat crash involving an allegedly intoxicated heir-apparent shed sunlight on a true crime saga like no other. Fixed-income securities involve interest rate, credit, inflation and reinvestment risks; and possible loss of principal. So I think that's going to be a key data point. And we got the jobs report here recently. Ok, let's talk about the labor market. For public television's fundraising drive this weekend, we are revisiting a recent WEALTHTRACK episode with one of the savviest and most experienced bond fund managers in the business. The Anatomy of a Recession (AOR) program is designed to help you stay on top of the business cycle and provide thoughtful insights through our exclusive risk and recovery dashboards. Talking about it all is Jeff Schulze, Investment Strategist at ClearBridge Investments and architect of their Anatomy of a Recession program. They ask small businesses two important questions in that survey.
Once again, today's guest was Jeff Schulze, the architect of the Anatomy of a Recession program from ClearBridge Investments. Third quarter of 2023. Jeff Schulze: Unfortunately, when the dashboard turns red, usually an object in motion stays in motion. So, you've just made a nice transition to the markets. Also, we got a release on job openings.
And we hope you'll join us next time, when we uncover more insights from our on the ground investment professionals. And if you've got any perspective on the current view—strength of the overall signal maybe? Schulze will explain why he now believes that there is a 55% chance of a downturn, why a recession is not inevitable but what conditions could push it one way or the other. Would you agree with that? In this WEALTHTRACK podcast we are joined by ClearBridge's Investment Strategist Jeff Schulze, the architect of the firm's widely followed Anatomy of a Recession (AOR) program, which publishes a monthly Recession Risk Dashboard, a 12-indicator scorecard of the economy, each color-coded according to their status, green for expansion, yellow for caution and red for recession.
86, which means there's almost two job openings for each individual that's unemployed. You're really seeing areas of the economy decline. And that red signal, which was very weak at the end of August, has gotten to a very deep red signal with two indicator changes in October, with job sentiment going from green to yellow and the yield curve moving from yellow to red.
If we have seen the bottom of the markets, this would be the first time since 1948—so in modern history—that the market has bottomed prior to the start of a recession. Now, the Fed knows that they need to create labor market slack or else they're going to repeat the sins of the late 1960s when that FOMC [Federal Open Market Committee] cut rates into a very tight labor market. So, things are moving in the right direction, but we still need to see more progress. Yes, we're down from highs to 2. Now, all three of these periods marked robust employment gains, but 1967 is unique in that there was a substantially tighter labor market at that time of that Fed pivot with the unemployment rate being at 3. 5%, I think the Fed really wants to create some labour market slack. And so far here in 2022's selloff you've had five notable counter-trend rallies with the largest and longest occurring over the summer. Host: So, we may not have hit bottom yet, but Jeff, is there some reason for optimism? See for additional data provider information. So, the Fed has made it abundantly clear that their reaction function is going to be later to the game than what you've traditionally seen. The U. government guarantees the principal and interest payments on U. He will also discuss market implications and strategy. Internal Sales Manager at Franklin Templeton Investments. So it's take-home pay.
At present, the labor differential (of available jobs versus available labor) is near a record level, suggesting a robust labor market, Clearbridge said in the report. Jeff Schulze: Well, we think the Fed does not want to repeat the mistakes of not only the soft-landing scenario of 1966, but also the start-stop dynamic that was endured during the 1970s. So, the Fed is saying that a shallow recession basically is on the horizon. And this maybe the tightest labor market, quite frankly, we've seen in five decades. Why do you feel a Fed pivot will continue to remain elusive? Sonal Desai, Chief Investment Officer of Franklin Templeton Fixed Income, and John Bellows, a Portfolio Manager at Western Asset, join the head...
And the fact that we entered bear market territory over three months ago suggests that we're probably getting to a point for a really good long-term buying opportunity. And when evaluating those four periods, there's a commonality that becomes clear: that a dovish Fed pivot was a key catalyst in continuing to keep that expansion moving forward. So I think given the weakness that you've seen in just quality and dividend growers in general here recently, I think it represents a really good opportunity for those to ride out some of this volatility. And it shouldn't be a surprise. If the Fed pivots, call it this quarter or next quarter, I think that's going to be great for the markets. ClearBridge Investments. Issued in the U. by Franklin Distributors, LLC. And if you like charts – there will be many of these that will show us some fascinating trends!
You also need to look at how many more hours somebody's worked this week than last week. And in looking at the last three recessions, historically, that number has been closer to 26% on average. MODERN EXPANSIONS HAVE HAD STAYING POWER. But, although consensus is a recession in 2023, we have hardened our view and we continue to believe that that's going to transpire. Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Bloomberg, ClearBridge Investments. People have been given mortgages with very high credit scores. To receive future insights from Franklin Templeton, email us at: [email protected]. We've had hawkish Powell, really, since that Jackson Hole conference where Powell ripped up his speech and pushed back on the idea of loosening financial conditions. Are there any other indicators on that dashboard that you are concerned about or focused on as we move forward here in the new month?
It's a group of 12 variables that have historically foreshadowed an economic downturn. But because of that stickiness of services inflation ex shelter, I think it's going to be difficult to get all the way back to the Fed's 2% target on a sustainable basis. He received a BS in Business Administration from the Gabelli School of Business at Fordham University, with a concentration in Finance. In retrospect, each of these periods proved great buying opportunities for long-term investors. So, with a red hot labour market, I think it makes the Fed very uneasy with inflation potentially normalising back to levels that were seen prior to the pandemic, and they recognise that the labour market needs to cool from current levels in order to accomplish those goals. Please plan to call the toll-free number to hear the speaker and join the WebEx event online to view the slides using the login details. This is what the news should sound like. And when listening to a number of FOMC [Federal Open Market Committee] members speak, they want to get policy to restrictive as quick as possible, which would be the equivalent of a fed funds rate north of 4%, and keep it there for a prolonged period of time to ensure that the Fed achieves its goals on inflation on a sustained basis. Plus, what it would take for the Fed to reverse course and make a dovish pivot, and how much a recession is already baked into the markets. Amazon recently laid off quite a large number of workers. But what we found interesting is that this perfectly coincides with the Fed upping their hiking per meeting to 75 basis points. The one area, though, however, that's going to be sticky—and [Fed Chair Jerome] Powell and the Fed has mentioned this several times over the last couple of speeches—is services inflation, ex-rent. So, things are continuing to deteriorate.
Bamboo toilet paper vs recycled toilet paper. Is Bamboo Toilet Paper Safe for Sewage Systems? Bamboo is a naturally robust and soft material that is also renewable. Scented toilet paper can disrupt your septic tank. When compared to bath tissue made out of recycled pulp and virgin pulp, bamboo tops them both. In dry climates, sand, powdered brick, or earth were effective post-poo cleaners.
Toilet paper is supposed to disintegrate in the plumbing system. So, will the switch to bamboo have you calling your local plumber sooner than expected or is it safe to be flushing down the toilet? Bamboo toilet paper is completely flushable. You can almost hear the sound of crashing trees, and we need every one of them to help suck out the CO2 from the atmosphere to slow down global heating. Also, there are no harmful chemicals used in the manufacturing process like regular toilet tissues so they won't damage your skin. Did you know that we use 1. Since it isn't like trees, the pulp is a little more difficult to process.
Some users have found a big increase in blocked toilets when using bamboo tissue. If you see RV toilet paper, it's likely going to be a great option for your septic system. You can go with the hardwood virgin pulp tree toilet paper, the recycled toilet paper, or the bamboo toilet paper. There is a very low likelihood that bamboo toilet paper would clog your drain. Even after the bamboo has been cut and is in the manufacturing process there is no need for bleaching or additional chemicals as bamboo naturally holds strength and softness unlike regular toilet paper. Here are five facts about bamboo toilet paper to help you decide if it's the right way for you to wipe. Your toilet can easily get clogged when you attempt to flush long sheets of toilet paper down the drain. Our 9 Favorite Toilet Paper Brands. For instance, bamboo has been growing in Southeast Asia for millions of years. The more the drain is being used, the worse it will get.
The adverts are well-crafted to catch your attention, but probably the product will end up causing problems to your plumbing. Bamboo toilet paper is designed to be highly capable of dissolving in water and often begins to break down as it is flushed. At the same time, 64% less energy is used. Because they won't clog your toilet, toilet paper that dissolves quickly is the ideal kind. Rather, the roll's tube is scented! Another thing that we love is sustainability: the company's standard rolls come wrapped individually in tissue paper, not in plastic. So we can go ahead and use bamboo toilet paper with confidence, knowing that our pipes will be happy. The hooks assist in breaking down a clog.
Our forebears would discretely ask the shop assistant for "Two, please" and the rolls were packaged and sold in plain brown paper wrappers. Instead, the fact that bamboo is so abundantly renewable is to blame. This is especially true for septic tanks, if you have one. Is not necessarily a 'no' as a result of these benefits, and it does not mean that there is no chance of bamboo toilet paper blocking your drains. You get 200+ 2-ply sheets in a roll. The company don't use chemicals and bleaches. Once the fibers have been turned into pulp, they soak, press, and form the pulp into the actual paper. They are not only made of environmentally friendly materials, but they also decompose entirely and swiftly. You may be surprised to learn that the same material used to make your softest sheets is often used to build furniture and in large-scale construction, too.
You can be confident that your septic tank won't overwork itself using compostable materials because they leave little to no trace. A big downside of recycled toilet paper is that it contains BPA. When using toilet paper made of bamboo, you should follow identical maintenance procedures to those you would follow when using toilet paper made of other materials. Avoid Falling for Commercials. Properly cleaning and maintaining your hardwood floors is critical to ensure they stay looking great for many years.
Pacific Blue Embossed Toilet Paper. The downside is that it usually contains a small amount of bisphenol-A (BPA). Can I use flushable wipes with a septic system? After all, that is the big question. For example, if you use a four-ply luxury toilet paper, it will fully decompose after one or two years!
Finally, bamboo requires less water than trees to grow. Seventh Generation is also a great choice for the eco-conscious. When toilet paper does clog your drain, it's usually because something else is going on. It is usually wrapped around a cardboard roll. Luckily, it is both soft and strong, meaning you should never need too much. See – perfect for your drains! Toilet paper made out of bamboo is stronger which means you can clean yourself with less tissue. It's free of toxic chemicals, parabens, and elemental chlorine. Then it was a coarser paper and sold in boxes of individual squares. If you're looking to make the switch to recycled toilet paper, the first thing you'll want to do is find out what there is to know about this eco-friendly product. To make a sustainable choice look for toilet paper products that are FSC certified.
More Likely to Break Down With Water. These tree made options often fill up the treatment plants and bring challenges in the management of waste. On the other hand, bamboo tissues have undergone natural processing that breaks down the structure of the bamboo plant into a pulp. These assumptions are completely inaccurate.