Of this much we're sure: global climate flip-flops have frequently happened in the past, and they're likely to happen again. Then it was hoped that the abrupt flips were somehow caused by continental ice sheets, and thus would be unlikely to recur, because we now lack huge ice sheets over Canada and Northern Europe. A meteor strike that killed most of the population in a month would not be as serious as an abrupt cooling that eventually killed just as many. Near a threshold one can sometimes observe abortive responses, rather like the act of stepping back onto a curb several times before finally running across a busy street. One is diminished wind chill, when winds aren't as strong as usual, or as cold, or as dry—as is the case in the Labrador Sea during the North Atlantic Oscillation. Its snout ran into the opposite side, blocking the fjord with an ice dam. The Atlantic would be even saltier if it didn't mix with the Pacific, in long, loopy currents. When the ice cores demonstrated the abrupt onset of the Younger Dryas, researchers wanted to know how widespread this event was.
The most recent big cooling started about 12, 700 years ago, right in the midst of our last global warming. The job is done by warm water flowing north from the tropics, as the eastbound Gulf Stream merges into the North Atlantic Current. By 1971-1972 the semi-salty blob was off Newfoundland. Things had been warming up, and half the ice sheets covering Europe and Canada had already melted. It's happening right now:a North Atlantic Oscillation started in 1996. Ours is now a brain able to anticipate outcomes well enough to practice ethical behavior, able to head off disasters in the making by extrapolating trends. Water falling as snow on Greenland carries an isotopic "fingerprint" of what the temperature was like en route. One of the most shocking scientific realizations of all time has slowly been dawning on us: the earth's climate does great flip-flops every few thousand years, and with breathtaking speed.
There is another part of the world with the same good soil, within the same latitudinal band, which we can use for a quick comparison. Up to this point in the story none of the broad conclusions is particularly speculative. In the first few years the climate could cool as much as it did during the misnamed Little Ice Age (a gradual cooling that lasted from the early Renaissance until the end of the nineteenth century), with tenfold greater changes over the next decade or two. So could ice carried south out of the Arctic Ocean. Perish in the act: Those who will not act. This salty waterfall is more like thirty Amazon Rivers combined. North-south ocean currents help to redistribute equatorial heat into the temperate zones, supplementing the heat transfer by winds. N. London and Paris are close to the 49°N line that, west of the Great Lakes, separates the United States from Canada. The last time an abrupt cooling occurred was in the midst of global warming. We might, for example, anchor bargeloads of evaporation-enhancing surfactants (used in the southwest corner of the Dead Sea to speed potash production) upwind from critical downwelling sites, letting winds spread them over the ocean surface all winter, just to ensure later flushing. Large-scale flushing at both those sites is certainly a highly variable process, and perhaps a somewhat fragile one as well. These carry the North Atlantic's excess salt southward from the bottom of the Atlantic, around the tip of Africa, through the Indian Ocean, and up around the Pacific Ocean. A slightly exaggerated version of our present know-something-do-nothing state of affairs is know-nothing-do-nothing: a reduction in science as usual, further limiting our chances of discovering a way out. We cannot avoid trouble by merely cutting down on our present warming trend, though that's an excellent place to start.
There is, increasingly, international cooperation in response to catastrophe—but no country is going to be able to rely on a stored agricultural surplus for even a year, and any country will be reluctant to give away part of its surplus. In Broecker's view, failures of salt flushing cause a worldwide rearrangement of ocean currents, resulting in—and this is the speculative part—less evaporation from the tropics. It's the high state that's good, and we may need to help prevent any sudden transition to the cold low state. Scientists have known for some time that the previous warm period started 130, 000 years ago and ended 117, 000 years ago, with the return of cold temperatures that led to an ice age. Oceans are not well mixed at any time. Europe's climate, obviously, is not like that of North America or Asia at the same latitudes. At the same time that the Labrador Sea gets a lessening of the strong winds that aid salt sinking, Europe gets particularly cold winters. It could no longer do so if it lost the extra warming from the North Atlantic. To the long list of predicted consequences of global warming—stronger storms, methane release, habitat changes, ice-sheet melting, rising seas, stronger El Niños, killer heat waves—we must now add an abrupt, catastrophic cooling. But the ice ages aren't what they used to be. Those who will not reason. The high state of climate seems to involve ocean currents that deliver an extraordinary amount of heat to the vicinity of Iceland and Norway. They are utterly unlike the changes that one would expect from accumulating carbon dioxide or the setting adrift of ice shelves from Antarctica. These blobs, pushed down by annual repetitions of these late-winter events, flow south, down near the bottom of the Atlantic.
Further investigation might lead to revisions in such mechanistic explanations, but the result of adding fresh water to the ocean surface is pretty standard physics. Even the tropics cool down by about nine degrees during an abrupt cooling, and it is hard to imagine what in the past could have disturbed the whole earth's climate on this scale. Tropical swamps decrease their production of methane at the same time that Europe cools, and the Gobi Desert whips much more dust into the air. It keeps northern Europe about nine to eighteen degrees warmer in the winter than comparable latitudes elsewhere—except when it fails. History is full of withdrawals from knowledge-seeking, whether for reasons of fundamentalism, fatalism, or "government lite" economics. Although the sun's energy output does flicker slightly, the likeliest reason for these abrupt flips is an intermittent problem in the North Atlantic Ocean, one that seems to trigger a major rearrangement of atmospheric circulation. When this happens, something big, with worldwide connections, must be switching into a new mode of operation. Civilizations accumulate knowledge, so we now know a lot about what has been going on, what has made us what we are. In 1984, when I first heard about the startling news from the ice cores, the implications were unclear—there seemed to be other ways of interpreting the data from Greenland. Recovery would be very slow. Three scenarios for the next climatic phase might be called population crash, cheap fix, and muddling through. Canada's agriculture supports about 28 million people.
By 125, 000 years ago Homo sapienshad evolved from our ancestor species—so the whiplash climate changes of the last ice age affected people much like us. The discovery of abrupt climate changes has been spread out over the past fifteen years, and is well known to readers of major scientific journals such as Scienceand abruptness data are convincing. Europe's climate could become more like Siberia's. Within the ice sheets of Greenland are annual layers that provide a record of the gases present in the atmosphere and indicate the changes in air temperature over the past 250, 000 years—the period of the last two major ice ages. The population-crash scenario is surely the most appalling. With the population crash spread out over a decade, there would be ample opportunity for civilization's institutions to be torn apart and for hatreds to build, as armies tried to grab remaining resources simply to feed the people in their own countries. Oceanographers are busy studying present-day failures of annual flushing, which give some perspective on the catastrophic failures of the past.
This cold period, known as the Younger Dryas, is named for the pollen of a tundra flower that turned up in a lake bed in Denmark when it shouldn't have. Volcanos spew sulfates, as do our own smokestacks, and these reflect some sunlight back into space, particularly over the North Atlantic and Europe. Now only Greenland's ice remains, but the abrupt cooling in the last warm period shows that a flip can occur in situations much like the present one. But to address how all these nonlinear mechanisms fit together—and what we might do to stabilize the climate—will require some speculation. Plummeting crop yields would cause some powerful countries to try to take over their neighbors or distant lands—if only because their armies, unpaid and lacking food, would go marauding, both at home and across the borders. Fjords are long, narrow canyons, little arms of the sea reaching many miles inland; they were carved by great glaciers when the sea level was lower. To see how ocean circulation might affect greenhouse gases, we must try to account quantitatively for important nonlinearities, ones in which little nudges provoke great responses. It would be especially nice to see another dozen major groups of scientists doing climate simulations, discovering the intervention mistakes as quickly as possible and learning from them. Of particular importance are combinations of climate variations—this winter, for example, we are experiencing both an El Niño and a North Atlantic Oscillation—because such combinations can add up to much more than the sum of their parts. Subarctic ocean currents were reaching the southern California coastline, and Santa Barbara must have been as cold as Juneau is now. We might undertake to regulate the Mediterranean's salty outflow, which is also thought to disrupt the North Atlantic Current. Any meltwater coming in behind the dam stayed there. That might result in less evaporation, creating lower-than-normal levels of greenhouse gases and thus a global cooling.
We might create a rain shadow, seeding clouds so that they dropped their unsalted water well upwind of a given year's critical flushing sites—a strategy that might be particularly important in view of the increased rainfall expected from global warming. Salt sinking on such a grand scale in the Nordic Seas causes warm water to flow much farther north than it might otherwise do. For a quarter century global-warming theorists have predicted that climate creep is going to occur and that we need to prevent greenhouse gases from warming things up, thereby raising the sea level, destroying habitats, intensifying storms, and forcing agricultural rearrangements. The populous parts of the United States and Canada are mostly between the latitudes of 30° and 45°, whereas the populous parts of Europe are ten to fifteen degrees farther north. But the regional record is poorly understood, and I know at least one reason why. A remarkable amount of specious reasoning is often encountered when we contemplate reducing carbon-dioxide emissions.
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